Australian cities are facing more frequent and severe heatwaves, bushfires and floods due to climate change. However, while some communities have the resources to adapt to these extreme weather events, not all bear the burden equally.
Households already experiencing disadvantage are often those most exposed to climate risks, and they have fewer financial buffers when disaster strikes. This unequal burden is the focus of a new study led by Dr Antonia Settle (Monash University), which investigated if lower-socioeconomic groups are disproportionately exposed to flood risk, and whether they suffer worse impacts when floods occur.
The research team analysed the 2022 floods in the Northern Rivers, a flood-prone region in New South Wales. Their innovative approach combined geospatial flood mapping, socioeconomic data, and property market data to compare how wealthy coastal areas and less wealthy inland towns experienced the disaster.
By examining house prices before and after the floods, and comparing regions’ socioeconomic demographics, the researchers could track how different communities were impacted by the disaster.
The study found that before the floods, the most flood-prone areas already showed signs of disadvantage, marked by lower incomes, higher unemployment, more single-income households, and cheaper housing, compared with the wealthier coastal areas.
When the 2022 floods hit, these inequalities only deepened.
After the floods, heavily flooded areas of poorer inland towns experienced a sharp rise in property listings, accompanied by house price declines of up to 27%. Together, these patterns point to widespread distress sales – situations where residents are forced to sell their homes quickly and at prices below the market value. For many lower-socioeconomic households, limited insurance cover, high repair costs and a lack of savings make it difficult to restore flood-damaged homes, leaving them little choice but to sell before markets recover.
The worst flood impacts on real estate markets in inland towns occurred 18 months after the floods, indicating that households were reluctant to sell but had to when their financial situations worsened.
Meanwhile, wealthier coastal communities that were comparably flooded suffered far smaller losses, had smaller declines in property values, and were more likely to hold out until market conditions had improved.
“The strength of this analysis came from being able to integrate geospatial flood mapping with detailed property-level data through AURIN. That combination allowed us to examine climate impacts at a level of granularity that is rarely possible in Australia,” said Antonia.
This study provides some of the clearest empirical evidence to date that climate-related disasters do not affect all Australians equally. Instead, they amplify existing inequalities, especially in places where households have fewer financial resources and lower housing security.
This comprehensive analysis, linking demographic, flood-risk, and property-level data, was made possible through AURIN’s Data Portal, which provided access to crucial data from the Australian Property Monitor. This included insightful information such as the number of homes put up for sale, the sale prices, and the features of the properties sold (such as land size and number of bedrooms).
“Making high-quality property and housing data available through AURIN is essential for understanding how climate change is reshaping Australian communities.
Access to datasets from partners like Australian Property Monitor and Domain ensures researchers can analyse these impacts with confidence and precision.” said Pascal Perez, Director of AURIN.
Impact
This study paints a stark picture of how disasters can deepen disadvantage, highlighting the need for more equitable disaster planning and recovery efforts.
Understanding who bears the greatest costs of climate change can help governments, insurers and planners design policies that direct support to the communities most at risk of long-term financial harm. By shining a light on the unequal toll of climate change, this research offers a chance to build fairer, more resilient cities for the future.